Rick Bagwell: A Few Truths to Guide Us…

When we look back on 2011 and look forward to 2012, there is one thing that we can all agree is present: uncertainty. Uncertainty in the economy, in the global governments, in regulation versus de-regulation, in health care, in clear deficit reduction, in ideological rhetoric – the list goes on and on… 

Milton Friedman once told a story of an ancient land, that poverty had decimated. The King called in his wisest economic advisors and demanded to be shown a short textbook on economics so that he might devise a remedy. A full year later the King’s advisors returned bearing not one but eighty-seven volumes. Enraged at having his orders ignored, the King ordered his guards to execute half of the advisors. Fearful for their life, the remaining advisors culled the economics texts down to four volumes. To this, the angry King responded by ordering his guards to execute all but one of the remaining economic experts. Finally, and with trembling, the last royal economist prostrates himself before the King and said: “Sire, in five words I will reveal to you all the wisdom that I have distilled through all these years from all the writing of all the economists who once practiced their science in your kingdom.” “Quick,” said the impatient King, “what is it?” Answered the counselor, “There ain’t no free lunch.” 

So it is today. Nothing comes for free. There are consequences for every decision, and for every policy. Even more so in a global economic environment, because what happens in one country, affects those living in another country, many times without the populous even being aware of the decisions that are being made, and the people making those decisions, only looking at consequences for a particular sector that has the largest impact on their particular area. Complexity has increased in every aspect of our lives. It is difficult to find the simplicity behind the complexity.

For sure, nothing will be settled nor achieved without compromise. As the famous commentator Eric Sevareid once said, “It doesn’t make much sense when two people are sitting in the same boat for one of them to point a finger accusingly at the other and say, “Your end of the boat is sinking.” It reminds of the fable where a dog with a bone comes to a pond and sees its reflection in the water. It thinks it sees another dog with a bone and tries to grab that one too. In doing so, it drops its bone in the water and winds up with nothing…

We need less politics and more statesmanship, like Benjamin Franklin displayed upon reading the final draft of the proposed US Constitution:

“I confess that there are several parts of this Constitution which I do not at present approve, but I am not sure I shall never approve them. For, having lived long, I have experienced many instances of being obliged, by better information or fuller consideration, to change opinions, even on important subjects, which I once thought right, but found to be otherwise.

It is therefore that, as the older I grow, the more apt I am to doubt my own judgment, and pay more respect to the judgment of others. Most men, indeed, as well as most sects in religion, think themselves in possession of all truth, and that whenever others differ from them it is so far error. Steele, a Protestant, in a dedication, tells the Pope, that the only difference between churches, in their opinions of the certainty of their doctrines, is “the Church of Rome is infallible, and the Church of England is never in the wrong.”

But though many private persons think almost as highly of their own infallibility as of that of their sect, few express it so naturally as a certain French lady, who in a dispute with her sister, said, “I don’t know how it happens, sister, but I meet with nobody but myself that is always in the right.”

In these sentiments, Sir, I agree to this Constitution, with all its faults, if they are such… I doubt, too, whether any other Convention we can obtain may be able to make a better Constitution. For, when you assemble a number of men to have the advantage of their joint wisdom, you inevitably assemble with those men all their prejudices, their passions, their errors of opinion, their local interests, and their selfish views. From such an assembly can a perfect production ever be expected? It therefore astonishes me, Sir, to find this system approaching so near to perfection as it does. Thus, I consent, Sir, to this Constitution because I expect no better, and because I am not sure that it is not the best. The opinions I have had of its errors I sacrifice to the public good. I have never whispered a syllable of them abroad. Within these walls they were born, and here they shall die.”

There it is – compromise. It is not a bad thing, not all will be completely happy, nor shall they be completely dissatisfied. However, by congruence of the minds, ways forward are to be found… Compromise trumps uncertainty; compromise in matters of economics brings stability to markets, and allows companies to plan and grow. Words have the power to bring compromise and eliminate uncertainty:

It takes only five words to say, “You did a great job.”
It takes only four words to say, “What do you think?”
It takes only three words to say, “I was wrong.”
It takes only two words to say, “Thank you.”
It takes only one word to say, “Please.”

Here is to trusting that in 2012, the politicians of our global governments limit their words to bring about compromise, eliminate uncertainty, and collectively find ways to move the world forward…

Best Regards,
Rick